Monday, June 2, 2008

NJ Democrats and the NJ Divide

So, New Jersey, who will you be voting for tomorrow?  Many people have emailed us to bring this up in the movie - but we don't want to get political.  The movie is a fun look at the divide in our state . . . it will make you laugh and may teach you a couple things.

That being said, on this blog, I will bring it up because it does seems like there is an electoral divide based on geography.  True it has been noticeable before - but expect the divide here to be made more apparent.  

If you don't know - democrat Rob Andrews from Camden County is challenging longtime Incumbent, democrat Frank Lautenberg, for the right to run against the Republican winner in November.  It is true, the winner of this contest on June 3rd will still have to beat the Republican nominee.  But among the three Republican candidates: Dick Zimmer, Dr. Murray Sabrin or Joe Pennacchio there is no debate about North and South . . Zimmer's old congressional district is the middle but not south enough to see a great divide in voting geographically; the other Republicans are from far north.  

But, the Democrats' contest is likely to see a split by voting: North and South.

Expect to see Lautenberg heavily winning in the Northern counties (where more of the population is) and Andrews will win heavily in the south.  It will be fun to look how the counties go and if we would be able to draw a line, huh? 

Here is how I see the voting panning out - (and I haven't been following it that much -just my feelings after traveling the state for a year)

1. Bergen
2. Passaic
3. Morris (though Cresitello could hurt him here)
4. Hudson
5. Essex
6. Union
7. Middlesex
8. Hunterdon
9. Somerset
10. Monmouth

11. Salem
12. Cumberland
13. Cape May
14. Atlantic
15. Gloucester
16. Camden
17. Burlington

The dark horse counties:
18. Sussex and 19. Warren - I could see good numbers for Cresitello here, but Lautenberg probably winning. 
20. Mercer and 21. Ocean . . . I am expecting Mercer to have a 'North Jersey" showing here and going for Lautenberg. . just look at the poll of my town to see how close. Ocean . . I am predicting a very, very narrow Lautenberg win.
But I am not an insider on NJ politics like this guy: Blue Jersey who predicts differences on Middlesex and Ocean amongst others.

Either way . . . vote tomorrow!

Frank Lautenberg


1 comment:

Dvd Avins said...

Scott Weingart's predictions at the beginning of April at Blue Jersey were not about who would win each county. They were about who be awarded "the line" in each county's ballot layout. That is worth several points in the primary itself, as many trust their county machines to pick good candidates. But it doesn't guarantee victory.

In any case, I think Lautenberg ended up winning the line in just about every county not among the "South Jersey Six".